Use of stable isotopes to reveal trophic relationships and transmission of a food-borne pathogen.

Predators in food webs are valuable sentinel species for zoonotic and multi-host pathogens such as Toxoplasma gondii. This protozoan parasite is ubiquitous in warm-blooded vertebrates, and can have serious adverse effects in immunocompromised hosts and foetuses. In northern ecosystems, T. gondii is disproportionately prevalent in Inuit people and wildlife, in part due to multiple routes of transmission. We combined data on T. gondii infection in foxes from Nunavik (northern Québec, Canada) with stable isotope data tracking trophic relationships between foxes and several of their main prey species. Red (Vulpes vulpes) and Arctic fox (Vulpes lagopus) carcasses were collected by local trappers from 2015 to 2019. We used magnetic capture PCR to detect DNA of T. gondii in heart and brain tissues, and enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay to detect antibodies in blood. By linking infection status with diet composition, we showed that infected foxes had a higher probability of consuming aquatic prey and migratory geese, suggesting that these may be important sources of T. gondii transmission in the Arctic. This use of stable isotopes to reveal parasite transmission pathways can be applied more broadly to other foodborne pathogens, and provides evidence to assess and mitigate potential human and animal health risks associated with T. gondii in northern ecosystems.

Self-reported tick exposure as an indicator of Lyme disease risk in an endemic region of Quebec, Canada.

BACKGROUND: Lyme disease (LD) and other tick-borne diseases are emerging across Canada. Spatial and temporal LD risk is typically estimated using acarological surveillance and reported human cases, the former not considering human behavior leading to tick exposure and the latter occurring after infection. OBJECTIVES: The primary objective was to explore, at the census subdivision level (CSD), the associations of self-reported tick exposure, alternative risk indicators (predicted tick density, eTick submissions, public health risk level), and ecological variables (Ixodes scapularis habitat suitability index and cumulative degree days > 0 °C) with incidence proportion of LD. A secondary objective was to explore which of these predictor variables were associated with self-reported tick exposure at the CSD level. METHODS: Self-reported tick exposure was measured in a cross-sectional populational health survey conducted in 2018, among 10,790 respondents living in 116 CSDs of the Estrie region, Quebec, Canada. The number of reported LD cases per CSD in 2018 was obtained from the public health department. Generalized linear mixed-effets models accounting for spatial autocorrelation were built to fulfill the objectives. RESULTS: Self-reported tick exposure ranged from 0.0 % to 61.5 % (median 8.9 %) and reported LD incidence rates ranged from 0 to 324 cases per 100,000 person-years, per CSD. A positive association was found between self-reported tick exposure and LD incidence proportion (ß = 0.08, CI = 0.04,0.11, p < 0.0001). The best-fit model included public health risk level (AIC: 144.2), followed by predicted tick density, ecological variables, self-reported tick exposure and eTick submissions (AIC: 158.4, 158.4, 160.4 and 170.1 respectively). Predicted tick density was the only significant predictor of self-reported tick exposure (ß = 0.83, CI = 0.16,1.50, p = 0.02). DISCUSSION: This proof-of-concept study explores self-reported tick exposure as a potential indicator of LD risk using populational survey data. This approach may offer a low-cost and simple tool for evaluating LD risk and deserves further evaluation.

Quality over quantity in active tick surveillance: Sentinel surveillance outperforms risk-based surveillance for tracking tick-borne disease emergence in southern Canada.

Background: Lyme disease (LD) emerged in southern Québec at the start of the century, with many municipalities now endemic. A coordinated active surveillance programme has been in place in the province of Québec since 2014, including a limited number of sentinel field sites resampled each year and a larger set of accessory field sites that change yearly according to the LD surveillance signal. We aimed to evaluate whether a sentinel approach to active surveillance was more representative of LD risk to human populations, compared to risk-based surveillance. Methods: We compared enzootic hazard measures (average nymph densities) from sentinel and accessory sites with LD risk (number of human LD cases) across the study area between 2015 and 2019 using local bivariate Moran's I analysis. Results: Hazard measures from sentinel sites captured spatial risk significantly better than data from accessory sites (χ2=20.473, p<0.001). In addition, sentinel sites successfully tracked the interannual trend in LD case numbers, whereas accessory sites showed no association despite the larger sample size. Conclusion: Where surveillance aims to document changes in tick-borne disease risk over time and space, we suggest that repeated sampling of carefully selected field sites may be most effective, while risk-based surveillance may be more usefully applied to confirm the presence of emerging disease risk in a specific region of interest or to identify suitable sites for long-term monitoring as LD and other tick-borne diseases continue to emerge.

Home range overlap between small Indian mongooses and free roaming domestic dogs in Puerto Rico: implications for rabies management.

The small Indian mongoose (Urva auropunctata) is the primary terrestrial wildlife rabies reservoir on at least four Caribbean islands, including Puerto Rico. In Puerto Rico, mongooses represent a risk to public health, based on direct human exposure and indirectly through the transmission of rabies virus to domestic animals. To date, the fundamental ecological relationships of space use among mongooses and between mongooses and domestic animals remain poorly understood. This study is the first to report mongoose home range estimates based on GPS telemetry, as well as concurrent space use among mongooses and free roaming domestic dogs (FRDD; Canis lupus familiaris). Mean (± SE) home range estimates from 19 mongooses in this study (145 ± 21 ha and 60 ± 14 ha for males and females, respectively) were greater than those reported in prior radiotelemetry studies in Puerto Rico. At the scale of their home range, mongooses preferentially used dry forest and shrubland areas, but tended to avoid brackish water vegetation, salt marshes, barren lands and developed areas. Home ranges from five FRDDs were highly variable in size (range 13-285 ha) and may be influenced by availability of reliable anthropogenic resources. Mongooses displayed high home range overlap (general overlap index, GOI = 82%). Home range overlap among mongooses and FRDDs was intermediate (GOI = 50%) and greater than home range overlap by FRDDs (GOI = 10%). Our results provide evidence that space use by both species presents opportunities for interspecific interaction and contact and suggests that human provisioning of dogs may play a role in limiting interactions between stray dogs and mongooses.

Low levels of genetic differentiation and structure in red fox populations in Eastern Canada and implications for Arctic fox rabies propagation potential.

Rabies is a lethal zoonosis present in most parts of the world which can be transmitted to humans through the bite from an infected mammalian reservoir host. The Arctic rabies virus variant (ARVV) persists mainly in populations of Arctic foxes (Vulpes lagopus), and to a lesser extent in red fox populations (Vulpes vulpes). Red foxes are thought to be responsible for sporadic southward movement waves of the ARVV outside the enzootic area of northern Canada. In this study, we wanted to investigate whether red foxes displayed notable levels of genetic structure across the Quebec-Labrador Peninsula, which includes portions of the provinces of Quebec and Newfoundland-Labrador in Canada, and is a region with a history of southward ARVV movement waves. We combined two datasets that were collected and genotyped using different protocols, totalling 675 red fox individuals across the whole region and genotyped across 13 microsatellite markers. We found two genetic clusters across the region, reflecting a latitudinal gradient, and characterized by low genetic differentiation. We also observed weak but significant isolation by distance, which seems to be marginally more important for females than for males. These findings suggest a general lack of resistance to movement in red fox populations across the Quebec-Labrador Peninsula, regardless of sex. Implications of these findings include additional support for the hypothesis of long-distance southward ARVV propagation through its red fox reservoir host.

Future land-use change predictions using Dyna-Clue to support mosquito-borne disease risk assessment.

Mosquitoes are known vectors for viral diseases in Canada, and their distribution is driven by climate and land use. Despite that, future land-use changes have not yet been used as a driver in mosquito distribution models in North America. In this paper, we developed land-use change projections designed to address mosquito-borne disease (MBD) prediction in a 38 761 km2 area of Eastern Ontario. The landscape in the study area is marked by urbanization and intensive agriculture and hosts a diverse mosquito community. The Dyna-CLUE model was used to project land-use for three time horizons (2030, 2050, and 2070) based on historical trends (from 2014 to 2020) for water, forest, agriculture, and urban land uses. Five scenarios were generated to reflect urbanization, agricultural expansion, and natural areas. An ensemble of thirty simulations per scenario was run to account for land-use conversion uncertainty. The simulation closest to the average map generated was selected to represent the scenario. A concordance matrix generated using map pair analysis showed a good agreement between the simulated 2020 maps and 2020 observed map. By 2050, the most significant changes are predicted to occur mainly in the southeastern region's rural and forested areas. By 2070, high deforestation is expected in the central west. These results will be integrated into risk models predicting mosquito distribution to study the possibility of humans' increased exposure risk to MBDs.

California Serogroup Viruses in a Changing Canadian Arctic: A Review.

The Arctic is warming at four times the global rate, changing the diversity, activity and distribution of vectors and associated pathogens. While the Arctic is not often considered a hotbed of vector-borne diseases, Jamestown Canyon virus (JCV) and Snowshoe Hare virus (SSHV) are mosquito-borne zoonotic viruses of the California serogroup endemic to the Canadian North. The viruses are maintained by transovarial transmission in vectors and circulate among vertebrate hosts, both of which are not well characterized in Arctic regions. While most human infections are subclinical or mild, serious cases occur, and both JCV and SSHV have recently been identified as leading causes of arbovirus-associated neurological diseases in North America. Consequently, both viruses are currently recognised as neglected and emerging viruses of public health concern. This review aims to summarise previous findings in the region regarding the enzootic transmission cycle of both viruses. We identify key gaps and approaches needed to critically evaluate, detect, and model the effects of climate change on these uniquely northern viruses. Based on limited data, we predict that (1) these northern adapted viruses will increase their range northwards, but not lose range at their southern limits, (2) undergo more rapid amplification and amplified transmission in endemic regions for longer vector-biting seasons, (3) take advantage of northward shifts of hosts and vectors, and (4) increase bite rates following an increase in the availability of breeding sites, along with phenological synchrony between the reproduction cycle of theorized reservoirs (such as caribou calving) and mosquito emergence.

Mechanistic movement models to predict geographic range expansions of ticks and tick-borne pathogens: Case studies with Ixodes scapularis and Amblyomma americanum in eastern North America.

The geographic range of the blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, is expanding northward from the United States into southern Canada, and studies suggest that the lone star tick, Amblyomma americanum, will follow suit. These tick species are vectors for many zoonotic pathogens, and their northward range expansion presents a serious threat to public health. Climate change (particularly increasing temperature) has been identified as an important driver permitting northward range expansion of blacklegged ticks, but the impacts of host movement, which is essential to tick dispersal into new climatically suitable regions, have received limited investigation. Here, a mechanistic movement model was applied to landscapes of eastern North America to explore 1) relationships between multiple ecological drivers and the speed of the northward invasion of blacklegged ticks infected with the causative agent of Lyme disease, Borrelia burgdorferi sensu stricto, and 2) its capacity to simulate the northward range expansion of infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks under theoretical scenarios of increasing temperature. Our results suggest that the attraction of migratory birds (long-distance tick dispersal hosts) to resource-rich areas during their spring migration and the mate-finding Allee effect in tick population dynamics are key drivers for the spread of infected blacklegged ticks. The modeled increases in temperature extended the climatically suitable areas of Canada for infected blacklegged ticks and uninfected lone star ticks towards higher latitudes by up to 31% and 1%, respectively, and with an average predicted speed of the range expansion reaching 61 km/year and 23 km/year, respectively. Differences in the projected spatial distribution patterns of these tick species were due to differences in climate envelopes of tick populations, as well as the availability and attractiveness of suitable habitats for migratory birds. Our results indicate that the northward invasion process of lone star ticks is primarily driven by local dispersal of resident terrestrial hosts, whereas that of blacklegged ticks is governed by long-distance migratory bird dispersal. The results also suggest that mechanistic movement models provide a powerful approach for predicting tick-borne disease risk patterns under complex scenarios of climate, socioeconomic and land use/land cover changes.

Comparing Control Intervention Scenarios for Raccoon Rabies in Southern Ontario between 2015 and 2025.

The largest outbreak of raccoon rabies in Canada was first reported in Hamilton, Ontario, in 2015 following a probable translocation event from the United States. We used a spatially-explicit agent-based model to evaluate the effectiveness of provincial control programs in an urban-centric outbreak if control interventions were used until 2025, 2020, or never used. Calibration tests suggested that a seroprevalence of protective rabies antibodies 2.1 times higher than that inferred from seroprevalence in program assessments was required in simulations to replicate observed raccoon rabies cases. Our simulation results showed that if control interventions with an adjusted seroprevalence were used until 2025 or 2020, the probability of rabies elimination due to control intervention use was 49.2% and 42.1%, respectively. However, if controls were never used, the probability that initial rabies cases failed to establish a sustained outbreak was only 18.2%. In simulations where rabies was not successfully eliminated, using control interventions until 2025 resulted in 67% fewer new infections compared to only applying controls until 2020 and in 90% fewer new infections compared to no control intervention use. However, the model likely underestimated rabies elimination rates since we did not adjust for adaptive control strategies in response to changes in rabies distributions and case numbers, as well as extending control interventions past 2025. Our agent-based model offers a cost-effective strategy to evaluate approaches to rabies control applications.

Widespread Exposure to Mosquitoborne California Serogroup Viruses in Caribou, Arctic Fox, Red Fox, and Polar Bears, Canada.

Northern Canada is warming at 3 times the global rate. Thus, changing diversity and distribution of vectors and pathogens is an increasing health concern. California serogroup (CSG) viruses are mosquitoborne arboviruses; wildlife reservoirs in northern ecosystems have not been identified. We detected CSG virus antibodies in 63% (95% CI 58%-67%) of caribou (n = 517), 4% (95% CI 2%-7%) of Arctic foxes (n = 297), 12% (95% CI 6%-21%) of red foxes (n = 77), and 28% (95% CI 24%-33%) of polar bears (n = 377). Sex, age, and summer temperatures were positively associated with polar bear exposure; location, year, and ecotype were associated with caribou exposure. Exposure was highest in boreal caribou and increased from baseline in polar bears after warmer summers. CSG virus exposure of wildlife is linked to climate change in northern Canada and sustained surveillance could be used to measure human health risks.

The added value of One Health surveillance: data from questing ticks can provide an early signal for anaplasmosis outbreaks in animals and humans.

OBJECTIVE: In 2021, a first outbreak of anaplasmosis occurred in animals and humans in southern Québec, with 64% of confirmed human cases located in Bromont municipality. Ixodes scapularis ticks and Peromyscus mouse ear biopsies collected in Bromont from 2019 to 2021 were analyzed for Anaplasma phagocytophilum (Ap) with the objective of determining whether an early environmental signal could have been detected before the outbreak. METHODS: Samples were collected for a concurrent study aiming to reduce Lyme disease risk. Between 2019 and 2021, up to 14 experimental sites were sampled for ticks and capture of small mammals took place on three sites in 2021. Samples were screened for Ap using multiplex real-time PCR, and genetic strains were identified using a single-nucleotide polymorphism assay. RESULTS: Analyses showed an increase of 5.7% in Ap prevalence in ticks (CI95: 1.5-9.9) between 2019 and 2020, i.e., one year before the outbreak. A majority of Ap-positive ticks were infected with the zoonotic strain (68.8%; CI95: 50.0-83.9) during the study period. In 2021, 2 of 59 captured Peromycus mice were positive for Ap, for a prevalence of 3.4% (CI95: 0.4-11.7). CONCLUSION: We conclude that data collected in Bromont could have provided an early signal for an anaplasmosis risk increasing in the targeted region. This is a reminder that integrated surveillance of tick-borne diseases through structured One Health programs, i.e. systematically integrating data from humans, animals and the environment, can provide useful and timely information for better preparedness and response in public health.

RéSUMé: OBJECTIF: En 2021, suivant une éclosion d'anaplasmoses chez les animaux et les humains dans le sud du Québec, des tiques de l'espèce Ixodes scapularis et des biopsies de souris Peromyscus spp. échantillonées à Bromont, la municipalité où 64 % des cas humains confirmés était localisé, ont été testées pour Anaplasma phagocytophilum (Ap) avec pour objectif de déterminer si un signal environnemental précoce d'augmentation du risque aurait pu être détecté avant l'éclosion. MéTHODE: L'échantillonnage a été réalisé dans le cadre d'une étude visant à réduire le risque de maladie de Lyme. De 2019 à 2021, 14 sites expérimentaux ont été échantillonnés pour les tiques. En 2021, trois sites ont été sélectionnés pour la capture des micromammifères. Les échantillons ont été testés pour la présence d'Ap à l'aide d'un PCR multiplex en temps réelle et les lignées génétiques ont été identifiées grâce à un test de polymorphisme mononucléotidique. RéSULTATS: Les analyses ont montré une augmentation de 5,7 % (IC95% : 1,5­9,9) de la prévalence de Ap entre 2019 et 2020, c'est-à-dire un an avant l'éclosion. Cette augmentation est associée à la présence d'une majorité d'Ap de la lignée zoonotique (68,8 %; IC95% : 50,0­83,9) sur l'ensemble de la période étudiée. En 2021, deux Peromycus spp. capturées sur 59 étaient positives pour Ap pour une prévalence de 3,4 % (IC95% : 0,4­11,7). CONCLUSION: Les données environnementales échantillonnées à Bromont auraient pu fournir un signal précoce de l'augmentation du risque d'anaplasmose dans la région. C'est un rappel que la surveillance intégrée des maladies transmises par les tiques inspirée de l'approche Une seule santé, intégrant systématiquement des données humaines, animales et environnementales, peut fournir des informations utiles et opportunes aux autorités de santé publique.

Integrated human behavior and tick risk maps to prioritize Lyme disease interventions using a 'One Health' approach.

Lyme disease (LD) risk is emerging rapidly in Canada due to range expansion of its tick vectors, accelerated by climate change. The risk of contracting LD varies geographically due to variability in ecological characteristics that determine the hazard (the densities of infected host-seeking ticks) and vulnerability of the human population determined by their knowledge and adoption of preventive behaviors. Risk maps are commonly used to support public health decision-making on Lyme disease, but the ability of the human public to adopt preventive behaviors is rarely taken into account in their development, which represents a critical gap. The objective of this work was to improve LD risk mapping using an integrated social-behavioral and ecological approach to: (i) compute enhanced integrated risk maps for prioritization of interventions and (ii) develop a spatially-explicit assessment tool to examine the relative contribution of different risk factors. The study was carried out in the Estrie region located in southern Québec. The blacklegged tick, Ixodes scapularis, infected with the agent of LD is widespread in Estrie and as a result, regional LD incidence is the highest in the province. LD knowledge and behaviors in the population were measured in a cross-sectional health survey conducted in 2018 reaching 10,790 respondents in Estrie. These data were used to create an index for the social-behavioral component of risk in 2018. Local Empirical Bayes estimator technique were used to better quantify the spatial variance in the levels of adoption of LD preventive activities. For the ecological risk analysis, a tick abundance model was developed by integrating data from ongoing long-term tick surveillance programs from 2007 up to 2018. Social-behavioral and ecological components of the risk measures were combined to create vulnerability index maps and, with the addition of human population densities, prioritization index maps. Map predictions were validated by testing the association of high-risk areas with the current spatial distribution of human cases of LD and reported tick exposure. Our results demonstrated that social-behavioral and ecological components of LD risk have markedly different distributions within Estrie. The occurrence of human LD cases or reported tick exposure in a municipality was positively associated with tick density and the prioritization risk index (p < 0.001). This research is a second step towards a more comprehensive integrated LD risk assessment approach, examining social-behavioral risk factors that interact with ecological risk factors to influence the management of emerging tick-borne diseases, an approach that could be applied more widely to vector-borne and zoonotic diseases.

Surveillance for Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus ticks and their associated pathogens in Canada, 2020.

Background: Ixodes scapularis and Ixodes pacificus ticks are the principal vectors of the agent of Lyme disease and several other tick-borne diseases in Canada. Tick surveillance data can be used to identify local tick-borne disease risk areas and direct public health interventions. The objective of this article is to describe the seasonal and spatial characteristics of the main Lyme disease vectors in Canada, and the tick-borne pathogens they carry, using passive and active surveillance data from 2020. Methods: Passive and active surveillance data were compiled from the National Microbiology Laboratory Branch (Public Health Agency of Canada), provincial and local public health authorities, and eTick (an online, image-based platform). Seasonal and spatial analyses of ticks and their associated pathogens are presented, including infection prevalence estimates. Results: In passive surveillance, I. scapularis (n=7,534) were submitted from all provinces except Manitoba and British Columbia, while I. pacificus (n=718) were submitted only from British Columbia. No ticks were submitted from the Territories. The seasonal distribution of I. scapularis submissions was bimodal, but unimodal for I. pacificus. Four tick-borne pathogens were identified in I. scapularis (Borrelia burgdorferi, Anaplasma phagocytophilum, Babesia microti and Borrelia miyamotoi) and one in I. pacificus (B. miyamotoi). In active surveillance, I. scapularis (n=688) were collected in Ontario, Québec and New Brunswick. Five tick-borne pathogens were identified: B. burgdorferi, A. phagocytophilum, B. microti, B. miyamotoi and Powassan virus. Conclusion: This article provides a snapshot of the distribution of I. scapularis and I. pacificus and their associated human pathogens in Canada in 2020, which can help assess the risk of exposure to tick-borne pathogens in different provinces.

Criteria for selecting sentinel unit locations in a surveillance system for vector-borne disease: A decision tool.

Objectives: With vector-borne diseases emerging across the globe, precipitated by climate change and other anthropogenic changes, it is critical for public health authorities to have well-designed surveillance strategies in place. Sentinel surveillance has been proposed as a cost-effective approach to surveillance in this context. However, spatial design of sentinel surveillance system has important impacts on surveillance outcomes, and careful selection of sentinel unit locations is therefore an essential component of planning. Methods: A review of the available literature, based on the realist approach, was used to identify key decision issues for sentinel surveillance planning. Outcomes of the review were used to develop a decision tool, which was subsequently validated by experts in the field. Results: The resulting decision tool provides a list of criteria which can be used to select sentinel unit locations. We illustrate its application using the case example of designing a national sentinel surveillance system for Lyme disease in Canada. Conclusions: The decision tool provides researchers and public health authorities with a systematic, evidence-based approach for planning the spatial design of sentinel surveillance systems, taking into account the aims of the surveillance system and disease and/or context-specific considerations.

An ecological approach to predict areas with established populations of Ixodes scapularis in Quebec, Canada.

Public health management of Lyme disease (LD) is a dynamic challenge in Canada. Climate warming is driving the northward expansion of suitable habitat for the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. Information about tick population establishment is used to inform the risk of LD but is challenged by sampling biases from surveillance data. Misclassifying areas as having no established tick population underestimates the LD risk classification. We used a logistic regression model at the municipal level to predict the probability of I. scapularis population establishment based on passive tick surveillance data during the period of 2010-2017 in southern Quebec. We tested for the effect of abiotic and biotic factors hypothesized to influence tick biology and ecology. Additional variables controlled for sampling biases in the passive surveillance data. In our final selected model, tick population establishment was positively associated with annual cumulative degree-days > 0°C, precipitation and deer density, and negatively associated with coniferous and mixed forest types. Sampling biases from passive tick surveillance were controlled for using municipal population size and public health instructions on tick submissions. The model performed well as indicated by an area under the curve (AUC) of 0.92, sensitivity of 86% and specificity of 81%. Our model enables prediction of I. scapularis population establishment in areas which lack data from passive tick surveillance and may improve the sensitivity of LD risk categorization in these areas. A more sensitive system of LD risk classification is important for increasing awareness and use of protective measures employed against ticks, and decreasing the morbidity associated with LD.

Fluralaner Baits Reduce the Infestation of Peromyscus spp. Mice (Rodentia: Cricetidae) by Ixodes scapularis (Acari: Ixodidae) Larvae and Nymphs in a Natural Environment.

The development of interventions that reduce Lyme disease incidence remains a challenge. Reservoir-targeted approaches aiming to reduce tick densities or tick infection prevalence with Borrelia burgdorferi have emerged as promising ways to reduce the density of infected ticks. Acaricides of the isoxazoline family offer high potential for reducing infestation of ticks on small mammals as they have high efficacy at killing feeding ticks for a long period. Fluralaner baits were recently demonstrated as effective, in the laboratory, at killing Ixodes scapularis larvae infesting Peromyscus mice, the main reservoir for B. burgdorferi in northeastern North America. Here, effectiveness of this approach for reducing the infestation of small mammals by immature stages of I. scapularis was tested in a natural environment. Two densities of fluralaner baits (2.1 baits/1,000 m2 and 4.4 baits/1,000 m2) were used during three years in forest plots. The number of I. scapularis larvae and nymphs per mouse from treated and control plots were compared. Fluralaner baiting reduced the number of larvae per mouse by 68% (CI95: 51-79%) at 2.1 baits/1,000 m2 and by 86% (CI95: 77-92%) at 4.4 baits/1,000 m2. The number of nymphs per mouse was reduced by 72% (CI95: 22-90%) at 4.4 baits/1,000 m2 but was not significantly reduced at 2.1 baits/1,000 m2. Reduction of Peromyscus mouse infestation by immature stages of I. scapularis supports the hypothesis that an approach targeting reservoirs of B. burgdorferi with isoxazolines has the potential to reduce tick-borne disease risk by decreasing the density of infected ticks in the environment.

Sentinel Surveillance Contributes to Tracking Lyme Disease Spatiotemporal Risk Trends in Southern Quebec, Canada.

Lyme disease (LD) is a tick-borne disease which has been emerging in temperate areas in North America, Europe, and Asia. In Quebec, Canada, the number of human LD cases is increasing rapidly and thus surveillance of LD risk is a public health priority. In this study, we aimed to evaluate the ability of active sentinel surveillance to track spatiotemporal trends in LD risk. Using drag flannel data from 2015-2019, we calculated density of nymphal ticks (DON), an index of enzootic hazard, across the study region (southern Quebec). A Poisson regression model was used to explore the association between the enzootic hazard and LD risk (annual number of human cases) at the municipal level. Predictions from models were able to track both spatial and interannual variation in risk. Furthermore, a risk map produced by using model predictions closely matched the official risk map published by provincial public health authorities, which requires the use of complex criteria-based risk assessment. Our study shows that active sentinel surveillance in Quebec provides a sustainable system to follow spatiotemporal trends in LD risk. Such a network can support public health authorities in informing the public about LD risk within their region or municipality and this method could be extended to support Lyme disease risk assessment at the national level in Canada.

The utility of a maximum entropy species distribution model for Ixodes scapularis in predicting the public health risk of Lyme disease in Ontario, Canada.

Lyme disease is an emerging public health threat in Ontario, Canada due to ongoing range expansion of the tick vector, Ixodes scapularis. Tick density is an important predictor of human Lyme disease risk and is typically measured using active tick surveillance via drag sampling, which is time and resource-intensive. New cost-effective tools are needed to augment current surveillance activities. Our objective was to evaluate the ability of a maximum entropy (Maxent) species distribution model to predict I. scapularis density in three regions of Ontario - Ottawa, Kingston, and southern Ontario - in order to determine its utility in predicting the public health risk of Lyme disease. Ticks were collected via drag sampling at 60 sites across the three regions. Model-predicted habitat suitability was calculated from a previously constructed Maxent model as the mean predicted habitat suitability within a 1-km radius of each site. Spearman's correlation coefficient was used to quantify the continuous relationship between model-predicted habitat suitability and tick density, and negative binomial regression was used to quantify the relationship between tick density and model-predicated habitat suitability. Spearman's correlation coefficients for the full study area, Kingston region, and Ottawa region were 0.517, 0.707, and 0.537, respectively, indicating a moderate positive relationship and ability of the model to predict tick density. Regression analysis further demonstrated a significant positive association between tick density and model-predicted habitat suitability (p< 0.001). Using a dichotomized measure of model-predicted habitat suitability, the incidence rate ratio - the ratio of ticks per m2 in sites predicted to have a 'suitable' habitat compared to those predicted to have 'not suitable' habitat - was 33.95, indicating that tick density was significantly higher at sites situated in areas with predicted suitable habitat. Given that tick density is an important component of Lyme disease risk, the ability to predict high tick density locations using the Maxent model may make it a cost-effective tool for identifying geographic areas that pose elevated public health risk of Lyme disease.

Are foxes (Vulpes spp.) good sentinel species for Toxoplasma gondii in northern Canada?

BACKGROUND: In changing northern ecosystems, understanding the mechanisms of transmission of zoonotic pathogens, including the coccidian parasite Toxoplasma gondii, is essential to protect the health of vulnerable animals and humans. As high-level predators and scavengers, foxes represent a potentially sensitive indicator of the circulation of T. gondii in environments where humans co-exist. The objectives of our research were to compare serological and molecular assays to detect T. gondii, generate baseline data on T. gondii antibody and tissue prevalence in foxes in northern Canada, and compare regional seroprevalence in foxes with that in people from recently published surveys across northern Canada. METHODS: Fox carcasses (Vulpes vulpes/Vulpes lagopus, n = 749) were collected by local trappers from the eastern (Labrador and Québec) and western Canadian Arctic (northern Manitoba, Nunavut, and the Northwest Territories) during the winters of 2015-2019. Antibodies in heart fluid were detected using a commercial enzyme-linked immunosorbent assay. Toxoplasma gondii DNA was detected in hearts and brains using a magnetic capture DNA extraction and real-time PCR assay. RESULTS: Antibodies against T. gondii and DNA were detected in 36% and 27% of foxes, respectively. Detection of antibodies was higher in older (64%) compared to younger foxes (22%). More males (36%) than females (31%) were positive for antibodies to T. gondii. Tissue prevalence in foxes from western Nunavik (51%) was higher than in eastern Nunavik (19%). At the Canadian scale, T. gondii exposure was lower in western Inuit regions (13%) compared to eastern Inuit regions (39%), possibly because of regional differences in fox diet and/or environment. Exposure to T. gondii decreased at higher latitude and in foxes having moderate to little fat. Higher mean infection intensity was observed in Arctic foxes compared to red foxes. Fox and human seroprevalence showed similar trends across Inuit regions of Canada, but were less correlated in the eastern sub-Arctic, which may reflect regional differences in human dietary preferences. CONCLUSIONS: Our study sheds new light on the current status of T. gondii in foxes in northern Canada and shows that foxes serve as a good sentinel species for environmental circulation and, in some regions, human exposure to this parasite in the Arctic.